REFLEXIVE PEACE PRACTICE (RPP) PROJECT

Ethiopia experienced catastrophic security deterioration during 18–28 September 2026. TPLF forces seized three airports in Tigray and launched a major offensive against federal positions in Afar and Amhara, effectively collapsing the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. The escalation followed the 20 September formation of a seven-group opposition alliance including TPLF, which pledged to overthrow the government. Army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula accused Eritrea and Sudan of backing the rebels, while a humanitarian source estimated at least 150,000 displaced in Afar and reported the town of Erebti fell to rebels. The UN, AU, and US urged de-escalation, but no mediation breakthrough occurred.